ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF BREAST CANCER IN THE ALMATY REGIONIN 2015-2024

Abstract

Relevance: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common form of malignant neoplasm among women worldwide. In 2020, 2.3 million new
cases and about 685,000 deaths were registered. More than 80% of the cases are women over 50. Developing countries have higher
mortality rates. An increase in incidence to 3 million cases by 2040 is forecasted. This study is the first comprehensive 10-year regional analysis of breast cancer incidence, mortality, and stage at detection.

The study aimed to analyze the impact of measures implemented in the Almaty region (Kazakhstan) for early detection and
treatment of breast cancer on the dynamics of morbidity, mortality, and stage of detection in 2015-2024.

Methods: Assessment of trends and distribution of BC morbidity and mortality rates among the female population of the Almaty
region from 2015 to 2024. Statistical reporting forms No. 7, No. 090/U, and data from the regional cancer registry were used.
Demographic data were obtained from the official public materials of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Committee on Statistics). The indicators were calculated using standard epidemiological formulas, direct standardization, and statistical software programs, including Microsoft Excel and SPSS Statistics 23.0.

Results: The incidence of BC increased from 34.8 to 42.5 per 100,000, and the standardized rate increased from 34.2 to 39.1.
Mortality fluctuated, peaking at 11.6 in 2021, then decreased to 8.5 in 2024. The conditional mortality rate ranged from 20.1% to 35.1%. Early detection at stages I-II in-creased from 74.1% to 89.2% and decreased at stage III from 20.6% to 4.6%.

Conclusion: There is a positive trend in early diagnosis and survival in BC in the region. However, the continuing mortality rate and
the stable proportion of stage IV indicate the need for further improvement in the routing and availability of therapy.